Abdullah's promise, Umno's quagmire

SEPT 16, 2008 – Abdullah Badawi led BN to a near white wash with 90% of parliamentary seats won in the 2004 general election (GE). While standing tall and snubbing the opposition as irrelevant especially PKR, they went on to do the most unthinkable. They reneged on almost all their promises, antagonised the Non-Malays but most importantly they abused the trust given by the Malays.
Abdullah won the 2004 GE for Umno and BN almost single handedly. He said all the right things and presented a personal image of humility and piousness. His campaign was run on the pretext that he is a different man with a different administration, running down Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad's administration as corrupt, undemocratic and wasteful.
In contrast, Abdullah promised to open up democratic space, eliminate corruption and to treat all Malaysians equally resulting in the landslide win for Umno and BN. Four years passed and how the tables have turned against Abdullah and Umno. As Harold Wilson once said, one week in politics is a long time, and after four years the feeble attempts by Abdullah's administration to change now seems too little too late.
The current governance crisis is not entirely Abdullah's fault; he inherited an already tainted system. Mahathir's 22 years of iron fisted rule enabled him to build Malaysia as he envisioned it. During his rule, he singlehandedly destroyed the judiciary, education system and used the media to maintain power. Malaysia probably lost two generations of critically, articulate and robust youths – who do not question, do not challenge, and toe the line.
However, with the advancement of general material wealth, better access to education, the internet and more diverse life experiences of the urban middle class population, there was a consensus that something is direly wrong with our system of governance and voices of dissent rose in intensity especially after the dismissal of Anwar. Dr Mahathir, knowing that national anger and dissent towards him was growing, knew his time had come, accepting this albeit reluctantly and Abdullah came in with all the promises of change.
Malaysians unconditionally put their trust in Abdullah to deliver, or so he thought. He retained Dr Mahathir's Cabinet and while rescinding some of Dr Mahathir's project, he created new mega projects of his own. Wastages and leakages that were synonymous with Dr Mahathir's government continued under his nose.
In the March 8 GE, Abdullah and BN tried to rehash the same campaign motto but failed. Umno emerged battered while its partners – MCA, Gerakan and MIC – were almost wiped out. If not for their East Malaysian partners, BN would have lost. Even though Umno still emerged as the biggest single biggest party in Parliament, its relationship with other BN components had taken a serious downturn, talks of discontent turned into resolutions of protest. If the mood swings of MCA, Gerakan and Sabah parties are to be considered; Umno may well be the only party left in BN come the next GE.
In the UK, after the humiliating Tory defeat to the Labour Party led by Tony Blair in the 90s, John Major resigned as the head of the Tories. Even in Malaysian political history, Datuk Onn resigned when Umno rejected his proposal to open up the party to non-Malays. Tunku stepped down after the bad results of the 1969 GE and the subsequent riots.
The same was expected this time round with Umno but instead talks are still on succession, a concept that started from Tun Hussein Onn to Dr Mahathir to Abdullah that has taken mould as the tradition of political transfer of power within Umno.
Too much is at stake for Abdullah to let go. The son-in-law Khairy Jamaluddin's political career depends on the patronage of Abdullah. He is deemed too junior in Umno to wield significant grassroot support and to add, he was heavily blamed by certain quarters in Umno – rightly or wrongly – for the outcome of the recent GE.
Hence, a phased transition of power would be for his benefit and survival. At the same time, Najib, with the current Altantuya murder trial and Anwar Ibrahim's sodomy trial both perceived by the public to be linked to him, is happy to bide his time and wait for 2010. Therefore, in a sense, this succession formula between Abdullah and Najib is actually a lifeline for them both.
But this is not necessarily in agreement by Umno in general, what is interestingly shaping is the impending Tengku Razaleigh (Ku Li)–Muhyiddin pairing to challenge the Abdulah–Najib ticket in the December party elections. Muhyiddin has publicly asked Abdullah to expedite the transition of power and also encouraged Abdullah's nemesis, Dr Mahathir to rejoin Umno. Even though Ku Li's economic mantra might be outdated, the magnanimous statesman is still a notable candidate.
Muhyiddin himself is probably the most outstanding minister in Abdullah's current Cabinet. He spearheaded Johor's economic development while being a menteri besar, performed well in all ministerial posts held so far and has shown considerable leadership.
But the main focal point is actually if Najib will turn his back against Abdullah just like he did when he turned against Ku Li during the 1987 party elections. He would not want to be swallowed under the weight of disapproval against Abdullah. Hence, the divisional AGM in October will indicate whether the grassroots want a Najib-Muhyiddin or Ku Li-Muhyiddin pairing to bring the glitter back to Umno or if they are comfortable with Abdullah leading them out of this quagmire.
Like Golkar in Indonesia, it is quite difficult for Umno to perish. They will be a main player in the political scene for many years to come, with or without BN. Umno has strong, powerful and well entrenched grassroots' presence. It has been able to successfully "infiltrate" the Malay psyche equating the fall of Umno as the death of the Malay race.
To the ordinary Malay, Umno is good and well but it's the leaders who are corrupt. Hence, their migration of allegiance to Pakatan led by PKR may well be temporary. With the dismantling of the current leaders and through an injection of hope into the community, Umno might well rise again.
But Umno cannot merely stand on form alone without substance. Its battle cry of Malay supremacy is seen as outdated, racist and divisive. Intellectuals within Umno have been unable to articulate the Malay Agenda for the future. It is hard to see Umno abandoning this agenda with the current malaise that it is in.
The recent spate of arrests using the much loathed Internal Security Act (ISA) – involving a reporter, a prominent blogger and a leading opposition MP – showed that Abdullah and Umno are regressing back into their caves. Strike fear into the hearts of people and abuse power to maintain hegemony. This will retain power for the short term in Umno's hand but definitely not for long. Looking at the way they are heading Umno's future does look gloomy.
Almost all non-Malays and also a significant number of Malays, see the Umno brand of Malay agenda as tainted. Umnno needs to "soften" its image beyond a rebranding exercise to stand a chance. But having said that, can the Malay supremacy agenda be revived for 21st century Malaysian politics? This is only relevant if the "coup-de-tat" by Anwar's Pakatan on Sept 16 or soon after does not happen after all.

- published by The Malaysian Insider : Sept 16, 2008