Ronins run loose in Umno

SEPT 23, 2008 — When Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi uttered slowly the words "saya dengan ini menyerahkan jawatan …" at the press conference following Umno's supreme council meeting last week, everyone's jaw almost dropped, mistakenly thinking that he was handing over the premiership to Datuk Seri Najib Razak with immediate effect. Many were disappointed that it did not happen, none more so than Najib himself.
Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, Datuk Hishamuddin Hussein and Datuk Shafie Apdal, with the loudest being Tan Sri Rafidah Aziz, urged Abdullah to accept the current political reality and step down soon. Surprisingly, it was left to a paltry Datuk Annuar Musa to come to Abdullah's defence and the 2010 transition plan. Najib stepped in to end the discussion, and denied the other 20-odd supreme council members from defending Abdullah.
Najib feels that the message was loud and clear for Abdullah to take stock and hand over power immediately. However, if there is one thing Abdullah learnt from his predecessor Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, it is to dig in and ride out the storm. Abdullah tried to sweep aside the demands of a swift transition by playing musical chairs with a minor Cabinet reshuffle.
So engrossed was he in announcing the appointment of Najib as Minister of Finance that he forgot to announce his own takeover of the Defence Minister's post until pointed out by a reporter. This may just turn out to be a masterstroke by Abdullah or it is just delaying an inconceivable ending.
Muhyiddin has taken over the mantle from Dr Mahathir to become Abdullah's numero uno nemesis. In Muhyiddin, Abdullah is facing a popular senior Umno leader with good credentials and capabilities. Muhyiddin has become a thorn in Abdullah's Cabinet and Umno's supreme council.
Using the noble justification of revitalising Umno, Muhyiddin is eyeing the deputy president's post. The last Umno party elections saw him barely managing to secure the last seat in the vice-presidential race. To Muhyiddin's credit, he understands the concerns of the grassroots and has projected himself as the voice of reason for many supporters and leaders alike, but not necessarily to the top echelon.
He has come under severe criticisms following his call for Abdullah to hasten the transition period of the handover of the premiership. If he thinks Najib will favour him for the soon-to-be-vacant deputy's post, he had better think again. Najib prefers a more docile deputy in the form of Datuk Ali Rustam or a loyalist like Datuk Adnan Yaakob. The last thing Najib wants is to have a domineering and aggressive deputy, a reminder of Dr Mahathir's former deputies, Tun Musa Hitam and Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
Muhyiddin is working the grassroots to force divisions to nominate Najib as president and himself for deputy whilst Dr Mahathir's calculative move in announcing that he was supporting Ku Li for the presidency was meant to twist Najib's hand to abandon the transition plan and take Abdullah head on.
Najib wavered and during the press conference even hesitated to announce that he will decline nominations for the presidency. This enraged Abdullah and his supporters. The divisional meetings soon after the Raya holidays will see Abdullah's, Najib's and Muhyiddin's agents hustling and jostling for influence and support for their man. One, battling tooth and nail for the transition period to remain while another, fighting to oust the incumbent immediately and the other, promoting himself as the saviour of Umno.
As for Abdullah, maybe it would be sensible for him to accept the fact that Umno does not appreciate him anymore. Najib seems to look like the biggest winner whether he sticks to the transition plan or join forces with Muhyiddin to oust Abdullah. To Muhyiddin, now is the time for him to step up and he may just have to force Najib to accept him as his deputy. The power struggle between Abdullah, Najib and Muhyiddin might still end on a surprising note.
Where does this leave the dark horse, Tengku Razaleigh? At the moment, everything is doom and gloom for the Kelantan prince. He is destined to lose out again in the high stakes race for the presidency unless something out of the extraordinary happens. He could yet revive his flagging fortunes by accepting overtures from Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and become his deputy if Pakatan's take over of the federal government becomes a reality.
Far fetched? With history on his side, this ronin has the potential to cause major havoc in Umno.

- published in The Malaysian Insider : Sept 23, 2008